منابع مشابه
Technological Forecasting: A Strategic Imperative
Assessing future opportunities and threats is a serious management concern. All we know about the future is that it will very likely pose new and different challenges. Hence, the basic resources which serve a business today may have little relevance under tomorrow's conditions. If a business is to survive, it must be prepared to adapt rapidly to the requirements of the future. Difficulty arises...
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Building on the existing literature on evolutionary innovation and technological change, this paper aims to identify potential signals of technological discontinuities and to obtain assessments of experts to what extent these signals help them to predict discontinuities. Furthermore, we analyze whether internal experts (experts employed with firms) and external experts (e.g., consultants) diffe...
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A number of radically distinct models (inquiry systems) are described. The models derive from C. West Churchman’s recent characterization of the history of Western epistemology. It is argued that only a few of these models are appropriate for technological forecasting problems. Most technological forecasting methodologies rest on a dubious philosophical foundation. They unreflectively assume th...
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It is f i t t ing in this b icentennial year of the United States, for the ed i f i ca t ion of oncologists, to cast a glance at what physicians o f the American Revolut ion though t and practiced about cancer . There is no better source of such en l igh tenment than the wri t ings o f Benjamin Rush (1745-1813) of Phi ladelphia. Of English Quaker stock, born in Pennsylvania and educated at Pr i...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature
سال: 1980
ISSN: 0028-0836,1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/286197a0